Vienna Coffee House Conversations with Ivan Vejvoda

Episode 47: Demography, Europe, and the Western Balkans’ Future with Alida Vračić

Episode Summary

In this Vienna Coffee House Conversation, Ivan Vejvoda interviews Alida Vračić, co-founder and executive director of the Sarajevo-based think tank Populari. They discuss global demographic megatrends - aging populations, fertility decline, and regional disparities - and examine how migration and depopulation are affecting the Western Balkans, Europe and the wider world. Vračić outlines the challenges of census deficiencies, labor migration from Bosnia and Herzegovina to Western Europe, and the socioeconomic impact of a shrinking workforce. They explore policy options for attracting and integrating migrant labor, including language and cultural programs, and consider how populist politicians exploit fear around migration. The conversation then shifts to Europe’s geopolitical context, touching on U.S.-China rivalry, the Russo-Ukrainian War, and Europe’s multilateral responses. Finally, marking the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Agreement, Vračić assesses Bosnia and Herzegovina’s post-Dayton governance structure, the role of the Office of the High Representative, and prospects for EU integration as a means of consolidating stability and promoting domestic reform.

Episode Notes

Discussion Highlights:

Global demographic megatrends include aging populations, declining fertility rates, and diverging regional population dynamics.
Migration patterns involve both forced displacement from conflict zones such as Ukraine and Palestine and labor migration from the Western Balkans, with climate-related movement remaining unpredictable.
Depopulation in the Western Balkans is driven by inaccurate census data, economic factors that incentivize emigration, steadily declining fertility rates, and cultural influences on family size.
Many countries in the region face labor shortages as plumbers, electricians, and healthcare workers emigrate, prompting policy responses to attract migrant labor, cover an estimated €600 million integration cost in Croatia, and implement language instruction and integration programs.
Populist political discourse often exploits public fears about migration, while political leaders frequently show reluctance to acknowledge domestic labor shortages and plan beyond short electoral cycles.
Europe’s geopolitical context is shaped by U.S.-China competition, the continuation of the war in Ukraine, and uneven or delayed European responses to crises, such as the conflict in Gaza.
The current EU enlargement process is critiqued as overly merit-based, and many argue for the package accession of all Western Balkan states, drawing lessons from Croatia’s recent membership and anticipating a changing nature of the future European Union.
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s post-Dayton governance system succeeded in halting widespread violence but remains hampered by persistent power-sharing gridlock, redundant international structures such as the Office of the High Representative, and ongoing challenges in constitutional and education system reforms.
Thirty years after Dayton, instances of inter-ethnic violence have remained low since 1995, but schooling and commemorative practices remain fragmented, and domestic dialogue on wartime accountability has stalled.
EU integration offers the potential to replace international oversight with European Union frameworks while addressing governance deficits, pervasive corruption, and the need for electoral reforms.

About Alida Vračić

Alida Vračić is a political scientist and lawyer. She co-founded and serves as executive director of Populari, a Sarajevo-based think tank specializing in post-conflict state-building, democratization, good governance, and migration in the Western Balkans. Vračić holds a law degree from the University of Sarajevo and Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, where she specialized in criminal procedure law, an M.Sc. in International Public Policy from University College London, and completed Executive Education for non-government executives at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
Before founding Populari in 2007, she worked for the State Court Prosecutor’s team in Bosnia, at the Human Rights Commission of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and led Balkan-wide projects at the Human Rights Centre, University of Sarajevo, and the Spanish Institutional Programme. Vračić has been affiliated with several academic and policy institutions, including as a former Europe's Futures fellow at IWM, the European Council on Foreign Relations as a Visiting Fellow, and the German Marshall Fund as a Marshall Memorial Fellow.